Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
2. OVERVIEW
3 CLIMATE CHANGE
4. THE NATURE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT
5. THE UK RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
6. DEVON COUNTY COUNCIL'S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
7. THE CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS OF TORBAY RING ROAD STAGES 3 & 4
8. THE NEED FOR A DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROPOSAL
9. CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX A - CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION CALCULATIONS
APPENDIX B - DEVON LOCAL AGENDA 21 - TRANSPORT AND CLEANER AIR SPECIAL WORKING GROUP SUBMISSION
1.Introduction
1.01
My name is Maurice Trevor Spurway BA Dip Arch. I have been a Transport Campaigner for Exeter Friends of the Earth for 6 years. During this time I have developed an understanding about the impacts of transport on the environment, and the necessary techniques to reduce these impacts to a level that can be described as sustainable.
1.02
I am a member of the Transport and Cleaner Air Special Working Group set up by Devon County Council as part of its submission for Local Agenda 21 to be submitted later this year. I am also Chairman of the Transport Working Group which is part of Exeter City Council's Local Agenda 21 process.
1.03
I am also a member of Transport 2000, and Exeter Cycle Forum.
1.04
My evidence is presented on the basis that I am representing the hopes and aspirations of current and future generations who would like to live in a more sustainable world. My evidence is independent of any financial influence.
2.Overview
2.01
This Proof of Evidence outlines the background behind the need to address the problem of Climate Change. Firstly I will describe the long term effects of Climate Change on the global and local environment, and the reduction targets that are necessary in order to avoid the worst effects. I will then describe what might be needed in terms of a Demand Management transport strategy to deliver a "carbon sparse" future.
2.02
Finally, I will detail why the Torbay Ring Road Stages 3 and 4 does not meet those specific targets, and even worse, makes those targets even harder to achieve.
3Climate Change
3.01
It is now exactly 100 years since Sven Arrhenius first made the world aware of the dangers of global warming. It was not until the 1980s, however, that the concerns of a small group of scientists became a world-wide call for action.
3.02
In 1988, the United Nations General Assembly decided that the "as yet uncertain" dangers of Global Warming should be thoroughly researched. It set up a group of more than 300 of the world's foremost climate scientists called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with the express view of advising world leaders. In May of 1990 this panel unveiled their report 1 which was to become a changing point in the understanding of man's impact on the planet.
3.03
"We are certain" the report said "that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases ... These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the earth's surface."
3.04
The report went on to indicate that, if global emissions continued at their present rates, the world average temperature would rise by a full degree Celsius (almost 2º Fahrenheit) within 30 years. This may not appear very much, but represents the kind of global temperature rise never yet experienced on the planet.
3.05
The IPCC report concluded that "the long lived greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide) would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today's levels". Quite clearly immediate reductions of 60% would be difficult to achieve both technically and politically. The IPCC therefore established a range of scenarios th at would detail abatement strategies across a variety of gases, together with their attendant risks.
3.06
To summarise the various scenarios suggested by the IPCC together with subsequently developed scenarios, Karas 2 has developed a "typical" emissions reduction target as follows:Cuts in fossil fuel related carbon emissions from the industrialised countries in the order of at least 25-50% of 1990 levels by the year 2005;
Cuts in global carbon dioxide emissions of around 20-35% of 1990 levels by 2005 and 45-55 % by 2050, with the lower risk being attached to substantial early cuts. To minimise the risk of climate destabilisation beyond the end of the 21st century, cuts in Carbon Dioxide emissions of 80-100% may be needed by this time;
A halt to forest loss by the end of the century and net growth thereafter;
Ratification of the London Amendment followed by a further strengthening of the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the Ozone Layer;
Reductions on 1990 levels of global emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and nitrogen oxides over the next century;
Cuts in carbon monoxide of 30% on 1990 levels by 2005, and by 50% by the end of the century.
3.07
It is important to recognise that there were great uncertainties in the original IPCC 1990 report. This is due to the feedback mechanisms that were not built into the original Global Climate Models (GCMs). However, in a chilling conclusion the IPCC have stated that "It appears likely that, as climate warms, the feedbacks will lead to an overall increase, rather than decrease in natural greenhouse gas abundances. For this reason, climate change is likely to be greater than the estimates that we have given ..." !
3.08
A further strengthening of the resolve to deal with Climate Change was heralded when most of the world's countries signed up to the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit (UNCED). Although the Carbon Dioxide target was modest; stabilisation of CO2 emissions by the year 2000, it represented a consensus commitment to deal with the problem on a planetary basis. Included within this agreement was also a commitment to produce a plan for reducing CO2 emissions after the year 2000, by 1998.
3.09
In subsequent years the debate about Climate Change has continued with various reports concluding that Global Warming does not exist. A slowing down of planetary temperature rise caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 has caused some doubts about the prospects of Climate Change. Such doubts have led to a malaise of inaction which has pervaded most national and local government bodies across the planet. Three years after the Pinatubo eruption, however, global temperatures had begun to rise, with 1994 being the fifth hottest year since records began in 1860.
3.10
Furthermore, in November 1995 at Madrid, the most recent meeting of the IPCC concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate". 4 Basically, the IPCC have confirmed that Global Warming is here, and, more importantly, the time of procrastination has to end.
3.11
A significant advance detailed in the 400 page IPCC report (to be published in April 1996) is the inclusion of Sulphate aerosols in the GCM. This new model now gives an explanation for the measured stabilisation of global temperatures between 1945 and 1965. As a result of this revision to the GCM, a world-wide temperature rise of between 1 and 3.5 degrees centigrade by the end of the next century is predicted. A temperature rise equivalent to the temperature difference between the last Ice Age and now.
3.12
The chairman of the IPCC, Sir John Houghton, a former head of Britain's Meteorological Office said after the Madrid meeting "We are beginning to see the effects of our emissions on the climate. That's a big step - the last time round we said we could not yet see it".
3.13
This agreement, and its ratification the following month in Rome, marks a turning point. We now have a clear signal that we must now act quickly. It is going to be very difficult for governments both national and local to agree not to act to meet this threat.
4.The Nature of the Climate Change Threat
4.01
It is worth restating now a brief review of what the probable threats to the planet actually are...
4.02 Rise in Sea Level
It is estimated that the rise in sea levels would be ...
between 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030 (best guess of 20cm)
between 30 and 100cm by the year 2100 (best guess of 65cm)
This effect is mainly due to the thermal expansion of the sea, as a result of higher global temperatures.
4.03 The direct effects of sea level rise would include ...
recession of shorelines and wetlands
increased tidal range
estuarine salt front intrusion
the increase of salt contamination of coastal aquifers
the submersion of great tracts of low-lying coastal land
the displacement of coastal communities
great reduction of low-lying fertile agricultural areas
islands and cities being completely washed away.
A one metre rise, for example, could inundate up to 15% of Egypt's arable land and 14% of Bangladesh's net croped area. The islands of the Maldives, Tuvalu and Kiribati would disappear under the waves.
4.04 Melting of the Ice Sheets
In the 1970s scientists had predicted that an early sign of global warming taking place would be the break up of the Wordie and James Ross ice shelves in the Antarctic. Both have in fact now broken up.
4.05
If the whole of the West Antarctic ice-sheet were to collapse global sea levels would rise by 5 metres. Such a catastrophic event would have consequences far in excess of what has been considered here, but remains a distinct possible. Indeed the IPCC have said recently 5 that as the world warms up "there is a greater chance of surprises and unanticipated rapid changes".
4.06 Stormy Weather
Wind patterns are dictated by the climate. A climate dictated by rising global temperatures is more likely to include stormier weather. Such storms would cause great damage to buildings and flooding. This would also have the effect of higher building insurance premiums.
4.07 Ocean Current Changes
Oceanic circulation is driven by wind patterns. A concern that many scientists have raised is the possibility of chaotic changes to ocean currents which can be triggered by climate change. A change in the direction of the Gulf Stream Drift. for example, would have a significant effect in the UK. Possibly leaving it with a climate similar to Labrador in Canada, with great disruption to agriculture and the economy.
4.08 Precipitation and Drought
Climate change may have different effects in different parts of the planet. Some areas would get more rain, some would get less. The Hadley Centre in Bracknell have recently suggested that the changes to the UK climate would mean additional drought in the South and South East of the UK, but more rainfall flooding and soil impoverishment in the North and North West.
4.09 Disease
Apart from the fact that temperature change itself can have a deterioration in health, 6 there are serious concerns about a rise in communicable disease as a result of climate change. Diseases normally associated with the tropics such as malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis and dengue fever could migrate to more temperate climes. It is the tick-borne diseases that are likely to experience this effect most. The health aspects of Climate Change are addressed in the Air Quality and Health Proof of Evidence submitted by Colin Bannon.
4.10 Forestry
Global warming can relocate climatic zones at a faster rate (some 100 to 1000 times) than natural communities like forests can migrate. The effect world-wide would be a destruction of forests without their replacement. This will lead not only to a loss of a carbon sink, but also to the loss of species as climate and habitat migrate out from under them.
4.11 Food Production and Famine
The world's "bread-basket", the American Mid-West, would become much drier leading to sharp falls in crop yields. Harvests would be expected to fall in Central Europe and the Soviet grassland areas. Famine would increase in the dry parts of Africa.
4.12
Some climatic changes might appear to benefit Canada, Siberia, and Scandinavia. But these areas have poorer soils and will not have the ability to replace the world's food losses.
4.13 Human settlements
It is likely that, world-wide, hundreds of millions of refugees will be displaced by rising se levels and biotic impoverishment. Governments currently have difficulty in meeting the needs of a few thousand refugees from the Middle East, South East Asia, Africa and South east Europe. The planet would be over-run by displaced peoples in search of a new home.
5.The UK response to Climate Change
5.01
The immediate response from the UK was to set a target of stabilisation of carbon dioxide emissions at 1990 levels by 2005. Although the UK resisted, it eventually had to give way to an agreement of the 12 European Union countries to bring this target date forward to the year 2000.
5.02
This same target was the one agreed at the Rio Earth Summit held in June 1992. 75.03 The feeble nature of the UK Government's commitment is reflected in the fact that one of its own range of projections made in 1992, shows that, with low economic growth and high fuel prices, no new actions would be needed to keep CO2 emissions at the year 2000 below those of 1990. Stabilisation would mean the same as "business as usual" under such conditions.
5.04
The dangerous part of this situation is that the UK's commitment to CO2 stabilisation is being delivered by the unexpected increase in the number of gas powered power stations. As a result of the fact that UK gas supplies will be depleted in the second decade of the next century, it is almost certain that stabilisation based on this strategy is unsustainable.
5.05
Friends of the Earth have calculated 8 that it is possible to cut CO2 emissions by 25 - 30 Million tonnes of carbon (almost 20% of current levels) without even looking at the transport sector.
5.06
The government have however tacitly admitted that the 1989 "Roads for Prosperity" Roads Programme will contribute heavily to CO2 emissions, and have, and announced in the 1995 budget that the total trunk road budget has fallen from a peak of £23 billion in 1993 to around £8 billion in 1995. Whilst the national roads programme grinds to a halt the aspirations of County Authorities remains unabated. In Devon's case the road building programme announced in the 96/97 TPP bid actually increases. 9
6. Devon County Council's response to Climate Change
6.01
Local Authorities are well placed to deliver reductions in CO2 emissions. Maurice Strong, Secretary General of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit said that "No organisation or group is more important than local authorities when it comes to following up the Brazil [UNCED] conference" 10
6.02
In addition to the Climate Convention, another important document to emerge from the Rio Summit was Agenda 21. It was produced and agreed by national governments and aims to prepare the world for the environmental and development challenges of the 21st Century. The role of Local Authorities was recognised explicitly in Chapter 28 of Agenda 21; "Because so many of the problems and solutions being addressed by Agenda 21 have their roots in local activities, the participation and co-operation of local authorities will be a determining factor in fulfilling its objectives" 11
6.03
As a response to this, Friends of the Earth have established "The Climate Resolution" which aims to encourage Local Authorities in the UK to aim for a 30% cut in CO2 emissions. The wording of the Resolution is ...
"This local authority sets a target to achieve by the year 2005 a 30 percent reduction from 1990 levels of emissions of carbon dioxide due to energy and transport use in the authority's geographical area, and undertakes to develop a detailed and comprehensive strategy to achieve this target within 12 months of adopting this resolution"
6.04
Whilst Exeter City Council signed the Climate Resolution in 1995, Devon County Council have yet to do so. They will of course have to jettison most of their road building plans before they will be able to adopt such a target.
6.05
It has to be said, however, that Devon County Council have been very vigorous in pursuing a Local Agenda 21 strategy. Since its inaugural conference in Torbay in 1994, Special Working Groups have been developing various strands of the Local Agenda 21 submission. The Transport and Cleaner Air Special Working Group's most recent document is included in this proof as Appendix B.
6.06
Devon County Council's Sustainable Transport Policy 12 recognises that "Motor vehicles make an increasingly significant contribution to the volume of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and thence to the international problem of global warming" . Accordingly therefore one of the main objectives of the Transportation Policy is "to improve the environment through reduced congestion, CO2 emissions, noise, pollution, nuisance and by increasing the efficiency of use of fuel and social conditions in living areas".
6.07
The environmental appraisal carried out on the Devon County Structure Plan13 raises severe concerns about the environmental effects of its highways investment programme in Transport Policy TR12. It states that the programme (of which the Torbay Ring Road is a major component) of highway investment "may create development pressures along road corridors and indirectly increase the need to travel. May generate increased traffic consuming fossil fuels and affecting global warming".
6.08
We shall investigate in the next section how much the Torbay Ring Road will contribute to CO2 emissions.
7. The Climate Change effects of Torbay Ring Road Stages 3 & 4
7.01
We have looked at the impact of the Stage 3 & 4 Ring Road proposals as indicated in the following Proofs of Evidence submitted by Devon County Council:
Transportation and Economic Analysis - M J Tugwell
Air Quality Assessment - K D Leather
7.03
We summarise below the findings of the Air Quality Proof relating to carbon dioxide emissions:
StageDo MinimumPlateau routeValley RouteStage 3687184868300Stage 4428034453445Total111511193111745 Note: figures are in tonnes per year. These high levels of CO2 emissions are as a result of large increases in traffic volumes in the Ring Road corridor.
7.04
The methodology used for the carbon dioxide emissions (Design Manual for Roads & Bridges - Vol 11) is not very helpful or appropriate in respect of establishing a total understanding of the scale of CO2 emissions. The reason for this is that whilst emissions from carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter (and indeed those pollutants not assessed) have a largely local effect, carbon dioxide emissions have a global effect, and are not affected by dispersal effects.
7.05
To limit, therefore, the effects to the road corridor alone is to minimise the total burden of CO2 emissions on the locality. For example, the additional traffic generated by the road will create additional CO2 emissions in Brixham, Exeter and beyond. These effects have been excluded from the calculations.
7.06
It is recognised that the desired impact of the Ring Road is to reduce traffic in Torbay and more particularly on the coast road. 14 However, comparing the Do Minimum and Do Something schemes the reduction in traffic in the year 2015 on the coast road is only 1,500 vehicles AADT (5%) as a result of the scheme. More importantly, no figures are given in the Proof of Evidence for the total increase of traffic volume from 1995 levels.
7.07
The calculations also fail to take into account the full lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions associated with the building of the road as follows:
Transportation costs in designing the road. (The air quality consultants on this inquiry come from Liverpool !)
Construction of the road.
Manufacturing costs of road vehicles using the road.
Longer and larger number of journeys encouraged by the road.
Emissions caused by the centralisation of businesses enabled by the road.
Servicing and disposal of vehicles using the road.
Maintenance of the road.
Decommissioning of the road.
Out of Town developments made possible by the road.
Further CO2 emissions beyond the year 2015.
The destruction of carbon sinks as a result of building the road.
7.07
There are however two glaring omissions from the CO2 emission analysis;
Current day emissions are not calculated
The emissions from a demand management proposal are not calculated.
7.08
We address these two issues in the following section.
8.The need for a Demand Management Proposal
8.01
We have sought to bring forward a comparative calculation to establish the likely effect of a strategy whereby the £21 million cost of the Ring Road were invested in a series of proposals that would satisfy Demand Management criteria. We have not submitted detailed proposals, for that is clearly the responsibility of the Local Authority.
8.02
But we anticipate that a package of measures should be implemented that would have the desired effect of stabilising (or even reducing) traffic levels. 15 Such measures would include the following
...Road closures, partial closures
Reduced road capacity
Area bansRoute restrictions
Planned localised congestion
Traffic calming
Bus and tram priorities
Cycle Lanes
Pedestrian Facilities
Restricted parking allocations
Parking controls and charges
Park and Ride
Local Land Use Policies (PPGs 6 and 13)
Restricted road building
Promotion of the benefits of less car use
Neighbourhood transport clubs
8.03
All these measures (and a lot more besides) are expounded in Devon County Council's Transport and Cleaner Air Special Working Group's report included in Appendix B.
8.04
We have made the conservative assumption that the implementation of a package of measures as outlined above costing £21 million, should enable carbon dioxide emissions from traffic in Torbay to stabilise at today's levels by the year 2015. We consider that further measures would be required to bring about an overall reduction in CO2 emissions.
8.05
In order to investigate the comparative effect of a Demand Management Proposal we have recalculated the carbon dioxide emissions for the following situations ...
Current Situation (1995)
Demand Management Proposal (2015)
Do Minimum Scenario (2015)
Do Something - Plateau Route (2015)
Do Something - Valley Route (2015)
8.06
Because we do not have the resources or access to the DMRB methodology for establishing emissions, our calculation technique takes the following methodology:
Establish annual traffic levels and average speeds (provided by Devon County Council)
Road segment lengths taken from the K D Leather Air Quality Proof of Evidence.
Establish CO2 emission rates related to traffic speed (See Appendix page A6 - Earth Resources Research. 1990)
This allows a calculation of the total annual emissions generated by traffic on the Ring Road. We have chosen Stage 3 for comparative purposes.
8.07
We indicate below the summary of the results of this comparative calculation:
Stage 3 SchemeOur calculations
(tonnes/yr)DMRB calculations (K Leather Proof of Evidence)Current Situation (1995)3,070Demand Management Scenario (2015)3,070
Do Minimum Scenario (2015)6,7186,871Do Something - Plateau (2015)7,9768,300
Do Something - Valley (2015)7,8958,4868.08 Our results are about 4% below the figures generated by the DMRB methodology.
The reason for this is that we have not taken into account factoring for HGVs using the road. Otherwise the figures are comparable. We have however requested that Devon County Council produce the DMRB calculations for these additional scenarios. 16
8.09
The important conclusion is that the preferred Plateau route in 2015 will generate 160% more carbon dioxide than current levels. A similar costing package of Demand Management proposals could save over 5,000 tonnes of Carbon Dioxide per year by the year 2015.
9.Conclusions
9.01Devon County Council have put forward three "Doomsday options" to this inquiry;
Do Minimum,
Do Something in the Valley and
Do Something on the Plateau (the preferred option)
9.02
All 3 of these options generate more than twice the current level of CO2 emissions. The preferred Plateau Route generates 160% more carbon dioxide than current levels.
9.03
The £21 million expenditure on the Torbay Ring Road will actually prevent expenditure on sustainable options to deal effectively with Torbay's traffic problems.
9.04
A Demand Management option which meets the requirements of Internationally agreed targets and Devon County Council's own Sustainable Transport Policy has not been put forward at this inquiry.
9.05
We recommend the Inspector to find against the Valley and Plateau routes, and furthermore to investigate proposals for Demand Management proposals that will deliver sustainability and CO2 reductions.
Appendices
Appendix A - Carbon Dioxide Emission calculations
A1 Current Situation (1995)
A2 Do Minimum Scenario (2015)
A3 Do Something - Plateau Route (2015)
A4 Do Something - Valley Route (2015)
A5 Summary
A6 Graph to show relationship between speed and CO2 emissions
A7 Letter to Devon County Council dated 13th April 1996 requesting augmented CO2 calculations.
Appendix B - Devon Local Agenda 21 - Transport and Cleaner Air Special Working Group submission
B1 Front Page
B2 Public Transport
B3 Reducing Travel Distances
B4 Facilities for Cyclists and Pedestrians
B5 Reducing Traffic
B6 Reducing the use of Carbon Fuels
B7 Health, Welfare, Mobility and Development of Children
B8 Planning System Changes
1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Report to IPCC from Working Group 1: Policymakers Summary (June 1990).
2 Back from the Brink - Greenhouse Gas targets for a Sustainable World - Karas. FoE Trust Ltd. December 1991
3 D. Roodman. Worldwatch Institute. USA. September 1995.
4 New Scientist - 9 December 1995 - "Global warming 'jury' delivers guilty verdict"
5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report - Madrid - November 1995
6 Kalkstein, Davis, Skindlov and Valimont, "The Impact of Human-Induced Climate Warming upon Human Mortality". Washington. 1986.
7 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Geneva. 1992.
8 Response to the Dept of Environment's Discussion Document "Climate Change - Our national Programme for CO2 emissions. Karas, Roberts, and Weir. Friends of the Earth. 1993.
9 Transport Policies and Programme for 1996/97. Devon County Council. 1995.
10 Strong M. Presentation to the International Union of Local Authorities conference. Oslo. 1992.
11 Agenda 21, United Nations. Geneva. 1992.
12 Towards a Sustainable Transport Policy for Devon. Devon County Council. 1993.
13 Environmental Appraisal of the consultation draft of the Devon County Structure Plan First Review. Devon County Council. 1995.
14 Transportation and Economic Analysis Proof of Evidence. Page 20.
15 Less Traffic Better Towns. Friends of the Earth. 1992
16 Refer to the letter dated 13th April 1996 attached as Appendix Page A7
